LiveDaily ReportTrack RecordOptions
LiveDaily ReportTrack RecordOptions

CoinSig — 2026-03-01 Crypto Market Report

Predictions2026-03-01
BTC/USDTRANGEAI Bearish
$65,750▼ 1.77%
L $65,011 — H $68,189
ETH$1,939-1.27%·BTC Dom. 56.06%
0/ ±2▲+1
Neutral
Fear & Greed
14Extreme Fear
24h Volume
$14.5B▼-12.92%
Mixed signals across dimensions. Market direction unclear, consider staying on the sidelines. · Contrarian signals downweighted in downtrend. · Insufficient active signals. Low prediction confidence, use with caution.
AIThe market is consolidating in extreme fear, but showing faint bullish divergence signals.
LATESTData period 2026-03-01 00:00–24:00 UTC·Generated at 3/2/2026, 12:30:02 AM (local time)
Daily Market Structure Report
The market is consolidating in extreme fear, but showing faint bullish divergence signals. BTC price fell 1.77% to $65,750, with the Fear & Greed Index rising from 11 to 14 (Extreme Fear), and the weekly trend indicating a flat range between $64,031 and $67,952. Despite bearish pressure from ETF outflows of $1,480.1M, the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) trend turned rising, suggesting spot buying accumulation, which contradicts the overall downtrend. The core contradiction lies in: extreme pessimistic sentiment (Fear & Greed Index 14) versus positive micro-flow signals. The CVD shifted from falling yesterday to rising, with Order Flow Imbalance (OFI) biased buy (value 0.7813) and the Taker Buy Ratio increasing slightly from 49.61% to 50.49%. However, these bullish signals occur within a downtrend, and the signal system score is only 0 (confidence 20%), highlighting a tug-of-war between macro outflows (ETF) and micro inflows (CVD). Volatility is extreme high (IV Index 55.0, percentile 89.0%), but Implied Volatility (IV) decreased by 0.33 from yesterday to 55.0, with an IV-HV spread of 1.22 and premium of 2.27%. The Put/Call Ratio (PCR) edged down from 0.8115 to 0.8041, indicating slightly reduced put demand. Futures term structure is flat, and the Funding Rate improved from -0.0008% to -0.0004%, still negative but better, with positioning risk balanced (long liquidation share 51.2%). The weekly trend shows IV flat, maintaining a high-volatility environment without escalation. Key levels: Support at the 24h low of $65,011 and the week low of $64,031, resistance at $66,000 (round number) and the 24h high of $68,189. Max pain is at $75,000, well above the current price. A break above $66,000 with volume exceeding the weekly average of $14.3B could confirm the bullish divergence; conversely, a failure to hold $64,031 support may trigger cascading liquidations accelerating the downtrend. Watch in the next 24 hours: 1. If BTC breaks above $66,000 on heavy volume, it may trigger short-covering fueling a bounce; 2. If ETF outflows persist or intensify, they could suppress the bullish CVD signal; 3. Monitor whether volatility retreats from extreme highs, as a drop in IV may ease market tension.
Important News Events
•
Vitalik Buterin Lays Out A Plan To Make Ethereum 1,000 Times More Capable2/28/2026

The number sounds almost too big to take seriously. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin posted a detailed technical roadmap on February 27 outlining how the network could handle up to 1,000 times its current transaction capacity — without pricing out the smaller node operators who keep the system decentralized. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sell-Off Slows Down, But The Road To Recovery Is Long — Analyst The document, which Buterin informally calls the “Strawmap,” breaks the work into three problem areas: execution, data, and state. Near-Term Upgrades Come First The closest item on the list is an upcoming protocol upgrade called “Glamsterdam

•
Vitalik Buterin Unveils Ethereum’s Comprehensive Quantum Resistance Roadmap2/28/2026

Buterin proposes replacing consensus-layer BLS signatures with hash-based schemes, such as Winternitz variants.

•
Eastern Europe’s largest stock exchange launches ETPs on BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP2/28/2026

Poland’s main stock exchange, the biggest in the eastern part of Europe, has greenlighted the trading of several investment products based on major cryptocurrencies. The move comes amid regulatory uncertainty caused by the unsuccessful attempts of the Polish government to push through a law designed to align the nation’s crypto rules with the EU’s latest. […]

•
Antelope’s $1M Bitcoin Bet Signals Something Bigger2/27/2026

Antelope Enterprise Holdings Limited has launched its “Genius Plan” with a $1 million Bitcoin purchase, describing current market conditions as a strategic entry window. Also, management framed the move as the opening step in a broader capital strategy more meaningful than just a short-term trade. com

•
Vitalik Buterin may be almost done selling ETH2/26/2026

Vitalik Buterin is done with selling ETH for the funding of the Ethereum Foundation. However, the sales exceeded the initial plan.

•
Was Jane Street manipulating Bitcoin and crypto market crashes?2/26/2026

Was Jane Street behind the dumps traders blame for sudden crashes, or did a lawsuit just flip the mood right now?

•
Vitalik and Ethereum Foundation go all-out on permissionless DeFi2/25/2026

Vitalik Buterin and the Ethereum Foundation (EF) have reaffirmed their commitment to permissionless DeFi as a foundational pillar of the Ethereum network. Earlier today, Buterin discussed how the Ethereum Foundation approaches DeFi and what the foundation prioritizes in supporting and advancing finance. As far as Vitalik Buterin is concerned, DeFi is a core part of […]

•
Cipher reports Q4 adjusted net loss of $55M, $3.73B funding for AI pivot2/24/2026

Cipher, a company formerly known as Cipher Mining, has released its Q4 and full-year 2025 results, reporting $60 million in revenue, below what analysts expected, with an adjusted net loss of $55 million. It attributed those figures to heavy transition costs as the company shifts away from its core business operations — Bitcoin mining. Those […]

Signal Summary
DowntrendConfidence: 20%
⚠ Low confidence — insufficient active signals
Bullish 1Neutral 14Bearish 1
Funding Rate: P41.7L/S Ratio: 1.745Liq. Ratio: 51% Long liq.Large Trades: 51% sell sideIV Premium: 2.27%Fear & Greed: 14Taker Buy Ratio: 50.49%OI Change: -2.91%PCR: 0.8041Price Momentum: FlatCVD Divergence: No divergenceATM Book Imbalance: -9.3%HV Divergence: 2%mvrv: 1.23
Mixed signals across dimensions. Market direction unclear, consider staying on the sidelines. · Contrarian signals downweighted in downtrend. · Insufficient active signals. Low prediction confidence, use with caution.
▲ Bullish
CVD Trend
Rising×1.05
▼ Bearish
etf_flow
-1480.1×1
AI vs Rules
AI
▼ Bearish
Confidence: medium
Rules Prediction
— Neutral
Score: 0/2
AI and Rules disagree
Extreme fear sentiment and significant ETF outflows dominate, with a downtrend and mixed signals despite some bullish indicators like rising CVD and exchange outflow.
Yesterday Review
✓ ✅ Correct-1.77%
2026-02-28·Predicted: Slightly Bearish (-1)RangingLow confidence — insufficient active signals
0%Accuracy
Prediction aligned with market direction
✗ etf_flow
Last 7 Days3W 3L (1 skipped)
Win Rate50%
Avg Accuracy35%
02-21
02-22
02-23
02-24
02-25
02-26
02-27
AINeutral→❌ Missed
Key Price Levels
BTC
Round Number
$66,000+0.4%
24h High
$68,189+3.7%
Options Max Pain
$75,000+14.1%
Current Price
$65,750—
24h Low
$65,011-1.1%
Week Low
$64,031-2.6%
ETH
Round Number
$2,000+3.2%
Current Price
$1,939—
Round Number
$1,900-2.0%
Volume must exceed $14.3B (weekly avg) to confirm directional breakout
Key Insights
Market in extreme fear zone — historically a contrarian opportunity window
Market Structure Regimes
Flow RegimeMixedLarge Buy %: 49.2% · Divergence: —
Volatility StructureExtreme HighIV-HV: +2.27% · P89
Positioning RiskBalancedFR P41.7 · Long Liq %: 51.2%
Market Status
Market Sentiment?Extreme FearF&G 14 · FR P41.7
Who Dominates?ContestedBullish 1 : 1 Bearish · L/S 1.75
Capital Flowing In or Out?Inflow w/ DivergenceCVD Rising · Taker 50%
Volatility Risk?High Vol RiskIV 55 · HV 53.78 · P89
Detailed Metrics
Derivatives
Contract Metrics
Funding Rate?-0.0004%▲+0.0004%
Rate Percentile41.7%
Basis?-0.0433%▼-0.0086%
Open Interest?2.87B
OI Change-2.91%
Long/Short Ratio?1.75▼-0.148
Top Trader Long %56.14%
Liquidations & Large Trades
Long Liquidation14.93M
Short Liquidation14.23M
Long 51%Short 49%
Large Buy12,172 trades / 3.18B
Large Sell12,764 trades / 3.28B
Options
IV Index?55%▼-0.33%
IV Range54.15% - 56.29%
HV 30D?53.78%
IV Premium2.27%
Put/Call Ratio?0.80▼-0.007
Max Pain?$75,000
PCR (Volume)0.63
Options OI418.86K
Net Delta46.45
IV Skew25.2650
Vol Regimeextreme_high (P89)
Term StructureFLAT
Multi-TF HV
1H55.09%4H55.09%24H55.09%7D54.64%30D53.78%
IV Term Structure
Microstructure
CVD & OFI
CVD Trend?Rising (Falling →)
CVD Value9,117.93
CVD 4H20,408.06
Price-CVD DivergenceNo
Order Flow Imbalance?Buy Dominant
Taker Buy Ratio?50.5%▲+0.9%
Large Taker Buy / Large Taker Sell
Large Taker Buy90.4K
Large Taker Sell91.6K
Orderbook Imbalance?
5 Depth
+1.8%
10 Depth
+1.9%
20 Depth
+1.9%
Orderbook Depth
5 Lvl8.3
10 Lvl9.1
20 Lvl10.5
Orderbook Spread0.0002%
Cross-Exchange Spread
Avg0.001%▼-0.0001
Max0.008%
Volume LeaderBybit
Macro & On-chain
Macro Environment
US 10Y Yield1.74%
US 2Y Yield3.42%
Yield Curve (2s10s)-1.68%
DXY118.0
VIX18.6
HY Spread2.98%
Net Liquidity5.71T
Net Liquidity Chg-0.22%
S&P 5006,878.88
M2 Supply$22462.7B

Updated at 01/03/2026, 22:10:18 UTC

On-chain Data
BTC Market Cap$1317.6B
BTC Supply20M
BTC Active Addr.498,805
Hash Rate (EH/s)1026 EH/s
Exchange Netflow (BTC)-715.45 BTC
ETH Gas (Gwei)0.046 Gwei
ETH Staked3M
ETH/BTC0.0295
BTC ETF
ETF Total AUM$80.1B
IBIT AUM$50.1B
Est. Daily Flow$1.5B
BTC MVRV1.2276
BTC Realized Price$54,585
BTC NUPL0.1854
Stablecoin Supply
Total Stablecoins258.8B
USDT183.6B
USDC75.2B
BTC Momentum
From ATH-47.7%
30D Change-21.58%
200D Change-46.40%
Global Open Interest
BTC Global OI52.7B
ETH Global OI31.7B
Google Trends75/100

Updated at 02/03/2026, 00:10:55 UTC

7-Day Trend (7 days)
Price Trend→
Signal Trend▼
IV Trend→
Funding Trend▼
OI Trend→
Price Trend
Signal Trend
IV Trend
Fear & Greed
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.