CoinSig — 2026-05-13 Crypto Market Report
Predictions2026-05-13
BTC/USDTRANGEAI Bullish
$79,288▼ 1.46%
L $78,753 — H $81,270
ETH$2,258-0.71%·BTC Dom. 58.12%
+2/ ±4▲+1
Slightly Bullish
Fear & Greed
42Fear
24h Volume
$9.9B▲+61.95%
Mixed signals across dimensions. Market direction unclear, consider staying on the sidelines.
AIMarket is bearish today: BTC down 1.46% to $79,288, flow regime mixed with CVD turning up but OFI sell-biased, taker buy ratio neutral at 50.5%, sentiment dropping to Fear 42.
Daily Market Structure Report
Market is bearish today: BTC down 1.46% to $79,288, flow regime mixed with CVD turning up but OFI sell-biased, taker buy ratio neutral at 50.5%, sentiment dropping to Fear 42. Weekly trend flat, signal score +2 but confidence low at 40%, ETF inflow $571M provides support.\n\nCore contradiction: rising CVD (bullish) vs bearish liquidation ratio (80% long liquidations) — spot buying coexists with leveraged long fragility.\n\nVolatility extreme low (IV 38.87, 13.2th percentile), IV-HV spread -1.91, implied vol discount 4.68%, skew 4.8 shows put protection demand. Term structure flat, basis -0.0369% backwardation.\n\nKey support $78,753 (24h low), break could trigger long liquidation cascade; resistance $81,270 (24h high), breakout needs daily volume >$8.2B. Max pain $76,000 provides downside buffer.\n\nWatch: 1) If BTC breaks $78,753 on volume, expect fast move to $76,000; 2) If CVD keeps rising and price stabilizes, bullish divergence possible; 3) ETF inflow above $500M limits downside. Yesterday's signal was bullish but price fell, confidence low.
Signal Summary
RangingConfidence: 40%
Funding Rate: P47.9L/S Ratio: 0.9897Large Trades: 50% sell sideIV Premium: -4.68%Fear & Greed: 42Taker Buy Ratio: 50.50%PCR: 0.659Price Momentum: FlatCVD Divergence: No divergenceATM Book Imbalance: -4.4%HV Divergence: -2%mvrv: 1.48
Mixed signals across dimensions. Market direction unclear, consider staying on the sidelines.
▲ Bullish
CVD Trend
Rising×0.99OI Change
+4.42%×0.95etf_flow
571.2×1.14▼ Bearish
Liq. Ratio
80% Long liq.×1.03AI vs Rules
AI
▲ Bullish
Confidence: medium
Rules Prediction
▲ Bullish
Score: +2/4
AI and Rules agree
Despite Fear index at 42 and long-biased liquidations, ETF inflows, rising open interest, and CVD uptick suggest increasing buying pressure, potentially driving prices higher.
Yesterday Review
✗ ❌ Missed-1.46%
39%Accuracy
Multiple signal misses — possible market regime shift
✗ L/S Ratio✓ Liq. Ratio✓ CVD Trend✗ IV Premium✗ PCR
Last 7 Days3W 4L
Win Rate43%
Loss Streak2
Avg Accuracy59%
05-05
05-06
05-07
05-08
05-09
05-10
05-11
AINeutral→❌ Missed
Key Price Levels
BTC
24h High$81,270+2.5%
Week High$82,178+3.6%
Current Price$79,288—
Week Low$79,9690.9%
24h Low$78,753-0.7%
Options Max Pain$76,000-4.1%
ETH
Round Number$2,300+1.9%
Current Price$2,258—
Round Number$2,200-2.5%
Volume must exceed $8.2B (weekly avg) to confirm directional breakout
Key Insights
Long liquidations exceed 75% — bears dominating
Market Structure Regimes
Flow RegimeMixedLarge Buy %: 49.6% · Divergence: —
Volatility StructureExtreme LowIV-HV: -4.68% · P13.2
Positioning RiskBalancedFR P47.9 · Long Liq %: 80.4%
Market Status
Market Sentiment?NeutralF&G 42 · FR P47.9
Who Dominates?ContestedBullish 3 : 1 Bearish · L/S 0.99
Capital Flowing In or Out?Inflow w/ DivergenceCVD Rising · Taker 51%
Volatility Risk?Low VolIV 38.87 · HV 40.78 · P13
Detailed Metrics
Derivatives
Contract Metrics
Funding Rate?0.0039%▼-0.0015%
Rate Percentile47.9%
Basis?-0.0369%▲+0.0122%
Open Interest?4.44B
OI Change+4.42%
Long/Short Ratio?0.99▲+0.242
Top Trader Long %48.09%
Liquidations & Large Trades
Long Liquidation14.57M
Short Liquidation3.56M
Long 80%Short 20%
Large Buy11,469 trades / 3.08B
Large Sell11,420 trades / 3.14B
Options
IV Index?38.87%▲+0.14%
IV Range37.68% - 40.26%
HV 30D?40.78%
IV Premium-4.68%
Put/Call Ratio?0.66▲+0.015
Max Pain?$76,000
PCR (Volume)0.89
Options OI395.82K
Net Delta-14.12
IV Skew4.7962
Vol Regimeextreme_low (P13.2)
Term StructureFLAT
Multi-TF HV
1H39.87%4H39.88%24H39.87%7D38.66%30D40.78%
IV Term Structure
Microstructure
CVD & OFI
CVD Trend?Rising (Falling →)
CVD Value145.53
CVD 4H145.53
Price-CVD DivergenceNo
Order Flow Imbalance?Sell Dominant
Taker Buy Ratio?50.5%▼-0.7%
Large Taker Buy / Large Taker Sell
Large Taker Buy55.3K
Large Taker Sell56.3K
Orderbook Imbalance?
5 Depth+2.0%
10 Depth+1.7%
20 Depth+1.2%
Orderbook Depth
5 Lvl22.6
10 Lvl24.6
20 Lvl27.1
Orderbook Spread0.0001%
Cross-Exchange Spread
Avg0.000%▼-0.0001
Max0.004%
Volume LeaderBybit
Macro & On-chain
Macro Environment
US 10Y Yield1.99%
US 2Y Yield4%
Yield Curve (2s10s)-2.01%
DXY118.0
VIX18.0
HY Spread2.82%
Net Liquidity5.83T
Net Liquidity Chg-0.04%
S&P 5007,400.96
M2 Supply$23115.2B
Updated at 13/05/2026, 22:10:05 UTC
On-chain Data
BTC Market Cap$1587.7B
BTC Supply20M
BTC Active Addr.476,383
Hash Rate (EH/s)882 EH/s
Exchange Netflow (BTC)+3556.93 BTC
ETH Gas (Gwei)0.123 Gwei
ETH Staked3M
ETH/BTC0.0285
BTC ETF
ETF Total AUM$104.4B
IBIT AUM$67.3B
Est. Daily Flow+$571.2M
BTC MVRV1.4843
BTC Realized Price$54,227
BTC NUPL0.3263
Stablecoin Supply
Total Stablecoins266.5B
USDT189.8B
USDC76.7B
BTC Momentum
From ATH-37.0%
30D Change+6.31%
200D Change-28.93%
Global Open Interest
BTC Global OI70.7B
ETH Global OI45.4B
Google Trends49/100
Updated at 14/05/2026, 00:10:45 UTC
7-Day Trend (7 days)
Price Trend→
Signal Trend▼
IV Trend→
Funding Trend▲
OI Trend→
Price Trend
Signal Trend
IV Trend
Fear & Greed
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.