CoinSig — 2026-07-04 Crypto Market Report
Predictions2026-07-04
BTC/USDTRANGEAI Bullish
$63,115▲ 0.88%
L $62,303 — H $63,450
ETH$1,780+1.28%·BTC Dom. 55.71%
+2/ ±6▼-2
Slightly Bullish
Fear & Greed
22Extreme Fear
24h Volume
$5.0B▼-39.22%
Mixed signals across dimensions. Market direction unclear, consider staying on the sidelines.
AIMarket status: BTC edged up to $63,115 in thin weekend liquidity, but the signal score dropped from +4 to +2, indicating fading bullish momentum.
Daily Market Structure Report
Market status: BTC edged up to $63,115 in thin weekend liquidity, but the signal score dropped from +4 to +2, indicating fading bullish momentum. Flow regime is mixed, with taker buy ratio falling to 49.04% and CVD turning down, suggesting increasing sell pressure. Despite breaking above the weekly high of $62,566, volume contracted 39.22% from yesterday to $4.99B, well below the weekly average of $10.6B, making the move unconvincing. Fear & Greed remains in extreme fear (22), though slightly up from last week's 18.
Signal Summary
RangingConfidence: 60%
Funding Rate: P33.3L/S Ratio: 1.4728Fear & Greed: 22Taker Buy Ratio: 49.04%OI Change: +1.05%Price Momentum: FlatCVD Divergence: No divergenceATM Book Imbalance: -0.1%HV Divergence: -9%mvrv: 1.18
Mixed signals across dimensions. Market direction unclear, consider staying on the sidelines.
▲ Bullish
Liq. Ratio
7% Long liq.×0.96Large Trades
47% sell side×1.07IV Premium
-9.59%×0.73PCR
0.5652×0.87▼ Bearish
CVD Trend
Falling×0.97etf_flow
-1924.7×1.11AI vs Rules
AI
▲ Bullish
Confidence: medium
Rules Prediction
▲ Bullish
Score: +2/6
AI and Rules agree
Despite low funding rate and retail long crowding, heavy short liquidations, extreme fear, and multiple bullish signals (low PCR, IV discount) suggest a potential bounce.
Yesterday Review
✓ ✅ Correct+0.88%
75%Accuracy
Prediction aligned with market direction
✗ Funding Rate✓ Liq. Ratio✓ CVD Trend✓ Large Trades✓ IV Premium✓ PCR✓ ATM Book Imbalance✗ etf_flow
Last 7 Days2W 4L (1 skipped)
Win Rate33%
Avg Accuracy49%
06-26
06-27
06-28
06-29
06-30
07-01
07-02
AIBullish→✅ Correct
Key Price Levels
BTC
Week High$62,566+-0.9%
24h High$63,450+0.5%
Round Number$64,000+1.4%
Current Price$63,115—
Round Number$63,000-0.2%
24h Low$62,303-1.3%
Options Max Pain$60,000-4.9%
ETH
Round Number$1,800+1.1%
Current Price$1,780—
Volume must exceed $10.6B (weekly avg) to confirm directional breakout
Key Insights
Short liquidations exceed 75% — bulls dominating
Market Structure Regimes
Flow RegimeMixedLarge Buy %: 53.3% · Divergence: —
Volatility StructureCompressionIV-HV: -9.59% · P28.6
Positioning RiskBalancedFR P33.3 · Long Liq %: 7.1%
Market Status
Market Sentiment?Extreme FearF&G 22 · FR P33.3
Who Dominates?ContestedBullish 4 : 2 Bearish · L/S 1.47
Capital Flowing In or Out?Inflow w/ DivergenceCVD Falling · Taker 49%
Volatility Risk?Normal VolIV 39.04 · HV 43.18 · P29
Detailed Metrics
Derivatives
Contract Metrics
Funding Rate?0.0095%▼-0.0005%
Rate Percentile33.3%
Basis?-0.0579%▼-0.0347%
Open Interest?3.62B
OI Change+1.05%
Long/Short Ratio?1.47▼-0.072
Top Trader Long %55.52%
Liquidations & Large Trades
Long Liquidation449.56K
Short Liquidation5.87M
Long 7%Short 93%
Large Buy5,533 trades / 1.27B
Large Sell5,046 trades / 1.11B
Options
IV Index?39.04%▼-0.60%
IV Range38.66% - 39.75%
HV 30D?43.18%
IV Premium-9.59%
Put/Call Ratio?0.57▼-0.004
Max Pain?$60,000
PCR (Volume)0.43
Options OI360.00K
Net Delta-141.48
IV Skew13.1150
Vol Regimecompression (P28.6)
Term StructureFLAT
Multi-TF HV
1H39.18%4H39.18%24H39.18%7D42.41%30D43.18%
IV Term Structure
Microstructure
CVD & OFI
CVD Trend?Falling (Rising →)
CVD Value-2,260.33
CVD 4H-2,320.06
Price-CVD DivergenceNo
Order Flow Imbalance?Sell Dominant
Taker Buy Ratio?49.0%▼-0.6%
Large Taker Buy / Large Taker Sell
Large Taker Buy35.8K
Large Taker Sell32.3K
Orderbook Imbalance?
5 Depth+1.6%
10 Depth+2.0%
20 Depth+3.4%
Orderbook Depth
5 Lvl12.3
10 Lvl13.8
20 Lvl17.0
Orderbook Spread0.0002%
Cross-Exchange Spread
Avg0.000%▼-0.0001
Max0.003%
Volume LeaderBybit
Macro & On-chain
Macro Environment
US 10Y Yield2.25%
US 2Y Yield4.17%
Yield Curve (2s10s)-1.92%
DXY120.9
VIX16.6
HY Spread2.75%
Net Liquidity5.84T
Net Liquidity Chg+0.45%
S&P 5007,483.24
M2 Supply$23062.9B
Updated at 04/07/2026, 22:10:05 UTC
On-chain Data
BTC Market Cap$1268.1B
BTC Supply20M
BTC Active Addr.529,854
Hash Rate (EH/s)1005 EH/s
Exchange Netflow (BTC)+1614.83 BTC
ETH Gas (Gwei)0.086 Gwei
ETH Staked3M
ETH/BTC0.0282
BTC ETF
ETF Total AUM$75.9B
IBIT AUM$48.6B
Est. Daily Flow$1.9B
BTC MVRV1.1793
BTC Realized Price$53,036
BTC NUPL0.1520
Stablecoin Supply
Total Stablecoins257.1B
USDT184.1B
USDC72.9B
BTC Momentum
From ATH-50.0%
30D Change-1.27%
200D Change-28.23%
Global Open Interest
BTC Global OI56.4B
ETH Global OI34.9B
Google Trends38/100
Updated at 05/07/2026, 00:10:39 UTC
7-Day Trend (7 days)
Price Trend→
Signal Trend▲
IV Trend▼
Funding Trend▲
OI Trend→
Price Trend
Signal Trend
IV Trend
Fear & Greed
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.