CoinSig — 2026-07-16 Crypto Market Report
Predictions2026-07-16
BTC/USDTRANGEAI Neutral
$63,801▼ 1.42%
L $63,713 — H $64,975
ETH$1,864-2.77%·BTC Dom. 56.27%
+1/ ±5▼-3
Slightly Bullish
Fear & Greed
25Extreme Fear
24h Volume
$8.4B▼-2.43%
Mixed signals across dimensions. Market direction unclear, consider staying on the sidelines. · Contrarian signals downweighted in downtrend.
AIBTC currently at $63,801, down 1.42% intraday, with market sentiment in extreme fear (Fear & Greed 25).
Daily Market Structure Report
BTC currently at $63,801, down 1.42% intraday, with market sentiment in extreme fear (Fear & Greed 25). Flow regime is mixed: taker buy ratio rose to 51.76%, but CVD continues to fall, indicating insufficient buying pressure. Price oscillates in a narrow range between $63,713 and $64,974, with a flat weekly trend. ETF net inflow of $845.8M provides support for longs, but funding rate rose to 0.0076% (72.9th percentile), increasing the risk of crowded leveraged longs.
Signal Summary
DowntrendConfidence: 60%
Funding Rate: P72.9L/S Ratio: 1.426Fear & Greed: 25Taker Buy Ratio: 51.76%OI Change: -2.13%Price Momentum: FlatCVD Divergence: No divergenceATM Book Imbalance: -0.9%HV Divergence: -10%mvrv: 1.22
Mixed signals across dimensions. Market direction unclear, consider staying on the sidelines. · Contrarian signals downweighted in downtrend.
▲ Bullish
IV Premium
-10.33%×0.4↓PCR
0.5106×0.88etf_flow
845.8×1.02▼ Bearish
Liq. Ratio
71% Long liq.×0.97CVD Trend
Falling×0.97Large Trades
53% sell side×1.08AI vs Rules
AI
— Neutral
Confidence: medium
Rules Prediction
▲ Bullish
Score: +1/5
AI and Rules disagree
Mixed signals: extreme fear, low funding rate, declining OI, and bearish liquidations, but strong ETF inflows, exchange outflows, and rising stablecoin supply provide support.
Yesterday Review
✗ ❌ Missed-1.42%
26%Accuracy
Multiple signal misses — possible market regime shift
✗ Funding Rate✗ Liq. Ratio✓ CVD Trend✗ Large Trades✗ IV Premium✗ PCR✓ ATM Book Imbalance✗ etf_flow
Last 7 Days2W 4L (1 skipped)
Win Rate33%
Avg Accuracy40%
07-08
07-09
07-10
07-11
07-12
07-13
07-14
AIBullish→❌ Missed
Key Price Levels
BTC
Round Number$64,000+0.3%
24h High$64,974+1.8%
Current Price$63,801—
24h Low$63,713-0.1%
Round Number$63,000-1.3%
Options Max Pain$62,500-2.0%
ETH
Round Number$1,900+1.9%
Current Price$1,864—
Round Number$1,800-3.4%
Volume must exceed $8.4B (weekly avg) to confirm directional breakout
Key Insights
Signal score plunged sharply — sentiment deteriorating fast
Bull/bear signals in sharp conflict — market at directional inflection point
Market Structure Regimes
Flow RegimeMixedLarge Buy %: 47.1% · Divergence: —
Volatility StructureCompressionIV-HV: -10.33% · P7.7
Positioning RiskBalancedFR P72.9 · Long Liq %: 71.4%
Market Status
Market Sentiment?Extreme FearF&G 25 · FR P72.9
Who Dominates?ContestedBullish 3 : 3 Bearish · L/S 1.43
Capital Flowing In or Out?Net OutflowCVD Falling · Taker 52%
Volatility Risk?Low VolIV 36.2 · HV 40.37 · P8
Detailed Metrics
Derivatives
Contract Metrics
Funding Rate?0.0076%▲+0.0051%
Rate Percentile72.9%
Basis?-0.0493%▲+0.0044%
Open Interest?3.51B
OI Change-2.13%
Long/Short Ratio?1.43▲+0.244
Top Trader Long %61.42%
Liquidations & Large Trades
Long Liquidation3.76M
Short Liquidation1.50M
Long 71%Short 29%
Large Buy9,135 trades / 2.23B
Large Sell9,495 trades / 2.51B
Options
IV Index?36.2%▼-0.02%
IV Range35.76% - 36.64%
HV 30D?40.37%
IV Premium-10.33%
Put/Call Ratio?0.51▲+0.001
Max Pain?$62,500
PCR (Volume)0.83
Options OI393.58K
Net Delta-310.26
IV Skew5.5790
Vol Regimecompression (P7.7)
Term StructureFLAT
Multi-TF HV
1H36.37%4H36.37%24H36.37%7D36.69%30D40.37%
IV Term Structure
Microstructure
CVD & OFI
CVD Trend?Falling
CVD Value-6,584.63
CVD 4H-4,434.47
Price-CVD DivergenceNo
Order Flow Imbalance?Buy Dominant
Taker Buy Ratio?51.8%▲+1.8%
Large Taker Buy / Large Taker Sell
Large Taker Buy55.7K
Large Taker Sell59.8K
Orderbook Imbalance?
5 Depth+1.5%
10 Depth+1.5%
20 Depth+1.5%
Orderbook Depth
5 Lvl16.6
10 Lvl18.3
20 Lvl21.3
Orderbook Spread0.0002%
Cross-Exchange Spread
Avg0.000%
Max0.003%
Volume LeaderBybit
Macro & On-chain
Macro Environment
US 10Y Yield2.32%
US 2Y Yield4.13%
Yield Curve (2s10s)-1.81%
DXY120.5
VIX15.7
HY Spread2.71%
Net Liquidity5.99T
Net Liquidity Chg+0.42%
S&P 5007,572.4
M2 Supply$23062.9B
Updated at 16/07/2026, 22:10:06 UTC
On-chain Data
BTC Market Cap$1288.4B
BTC Supply20M
BTC Active Addr.481,858
Hash Rate (EH/s)879 EH/s
Exchange Netflow (BTC)-1058.62 BTC
ETH Gas (Gwei)0.087 Gwei
ETH Staked3M
ETH/BTC0.0292
BTC ETF
ETF Total AUM$75.9B
IBIT AUM$48.6B
Est. Daily Flow+$845.8M
BTC MVRV1.2246
BTC Realized Price$52,847
BTC NUPL0.1834
Stablecoin Supply
Total Stablecoins257.3B
USDT184.1B
USDC73.2B
BTC Momentum
From ATH-49.5%
30D Change-2.87%
200D Change-27.49%
Global Open Interest
BTC Global OI56.9B
ETH Global OI37.5B
Google Trends68/100
Updated at 17/07/2026, 00:10:34 UTC⚠ Some data delayed
7-Day Trend (7 days)
Price Trend→
Signal Trend▲
IV Trend→
Funding Trend▼
OI Trend→
Price Trend
Signal Trend
IV Trend
Fear & Greed
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.